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Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024
- Mercedes Bustamante, Joyashree Roy, Daniel Ospina, Ploy Achakulwisut, Anubha Aggarwal, Ana Bastos, Wendy Broadgate, Josep G. Canadell, Edward R. Carr, Deliang Chen, Helen A. Cleugh, Kristie L. Ebi, Clea Edwards, Carol Farbotko, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Thomas L. Frölicher, Sabine Fuss, Oliver Geden, Nicolas Gruber, Luke J. Harrington, Judith Hauck, Zeke Hausfather, Sophie Hebden, Aniek Hebinck, Saleemul Huq, Matthias Huss, M. Laurice P. Jamero, Sirkku Juhola, Nilushi Kumarasinghe, Shuaib Lwasa, Bishawjit Mallick, Maria Martin, Steven McGreevy, Paula Mirazo, Aditi Mukherji, Greg Muttitt, Gregory F. Nemet, David Obura, Chukwumerije Okereke, Tom Oliver, Ben Orlove, Nadia S. Ouedraogo, Prabir K. Patra, Mark Pelling, Laura M. Pereira, Åsa Persson, Julia Pongratz, Anjal Prakash, Anja Rammig, Colin Raymond, Aaron Redman, Cristobal Reveco, Johan Rockström, Regina Rodrigues, David R. Rounce, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Peter Schlosser, Odirilwe Selomane, Gregor Semieniuk, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tasneem A. Siddiqui, Vartika Singh, Giles B. Sioen, Youba Sokona, Detlef Stammer, Norman J. Steinert, Sunhee Suk, Rowan Sutton, Lisa Thalheimer, Vikki Thompson, Gregory Trencher, Kees van der Geest, Saskia E. Werners, Thea Wübbelmann, Nico Wunderling, Jiabo Yin, Kirsten Zickfeld, Jakob Zscheischler
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Accepted manuscript
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 December 2023, pp. 1-58
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Ten new insights in climate science 2022
- Maria A. Martin, Emmanuel A. Boakye, Emily Boyd, Wendy Broadgate, Mercedes Bustamante, Josep G. Canadell, Edward R. Carr, Eric K. Chu, Helen Cleugh, Szilvia Csevár, Marwa Daoudy, Ariane de Bremond, Meghnath Dhimal, Kristie L. Ebi, Clea Edwards, Sabine Fuss, Martin P. Girardin, Bruce Glavovic, Sophie Hebden, Marina Hirota, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Saleemul Huq, Karin Ingold, Ola M. Johannessen, Yasuko Kameyama, Nilushi Kumarasinghe, Gaby S. Langendijk, Tabea Lissner, Shuaib Lwasa, Catherine Machalaba, Aaron Maltais, Manu V. Mathai, Cheikh Mbow, Karen E. McNamara, Aditi Mukherji, Virginia Murray, Jaroslav Mysiak, Chukwumerije Okereke, Daniel Ospina, Friederike Otto, Anjal Prakash, Juan M. Pulhin, Emmanuel Raju, Aaron Redman, Kanta K. Rigaud, Johan Rockström, Joyashree Roy, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Peter Schlosser, Karsten A. Schulz, Kim Schumacher, Luana Schwarz, Murray Scown, Barbora Šedová, Tasneem A. Siddiqui, Chandni Singh, Giles B. Sioen, Detlef Stammer, Norman J. Steinert, Sunhee Suk, Rowan Sutton, Lisa Thalheimer, Maarten van Aalst, Kees van der Geest, Zhirong Jerry Zhao
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Volume 5 / 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 10 November 2022, e20
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Non-technical summary
We summarize what we assess as the past year's most important findings within climate change research: limits to adaptation, vulnerability hotspots, new threats coming from the climate–health nexus, climate (im)mobility and security, sustainable practices for land use and finance, losses and damages, inclusive societal climate decisions and ways to overcome structural barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
Technical summaryWe synthesize 10 topics within climate research where there have been significant advances or emerging scientific consensus since January 2021. The selection of these insights was based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings concern: (1) new aspects of soft and hard limits to adaptation; (2) the emergence of regional vulnerability hotspots from climate impacts and human vulnerability; (3) new threats on the climate–health horizon – some involving plants and animals; (4) climate (im)mobility and the need for anticipatory action; (5) security and climate; (6) sustainable land management as a prerequisite to land-based solutions; (7) sustainable finance practices in the private sector and the need for political guidance; (8) the urgent planetary imperative for addressing losses and damages; (9) inclusive societal choices for climate-resilient development and (10) how to overcome barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
Social media summaryScience has evidence on barriers to mitigation and how to overcome them to avoid limits to adaptation across multiple fields.
Chapter 2 - Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability
- from Section III
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- By Omar-Dario Cardona, Maarten K. van Aalst, Jörn Birkmann, Maureen Fordham, Glenn McGregor, Rosa Perez, Roger S. Pulwarty, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Bach Tan Sinh, Henri Décamps, Mark Keim, Ian Davis, Kristie L. Ebi, Allan Lavell, Reinhard Mechler, Virginia Murray, Mark Pelling, Jürgen Pohl, Anthony-Oliver Smith, Frank Thomalla
- Edited by Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker, Qin Dahe
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- Book:
- Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 28 May 2012, pp 65-108
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Summary
Executive Summary
The severity of the impacts of extreme and non-extreme weather and climate events depends strongly on the level of vulnerability and exposure to these events (high confidence). [2.2.1, 2.3, 2.5] Trends in vulnerability and exposure are major drivers of changes in disaster risk, and of impacts when risk is realized (high confidence). [2.5] Understanding the multi-faceted nature of vulnerability and exposure is a prerequisite for determining how weather and climate events contribute to the occurrence of disasters, and for designing and implementing effective adaptation and disaster risk management strategies. [2.2, 2.6]
Vulnerability and exposure are dynamic, varying across temporal and spatial scales, and depend on economic, social, geographic, demographic, cultural, institutional, governance, and environmental factors (high confidence). [2.2, 2.3, 2.5] Individuals and communities are differentially exposed and vulnerable and this is based on factors such as wealth, education, race/ethnicity/religion, gender, age, class/caste, disability, and health status. [2.5] Lack of resilience and capacity to anticipate, cope with, and adapt to extremes and change are important causal factors of vulnerability. [2.4]
Extreme and non-extreme weather and climate events also affect vulnerability to future extreme events, by modifying the resilience, coping, and adaptive capacity of communities, societies, or social-ecological systems affected by such events (high confidence). [2.4.3] At the far end of the spectrum – low-probability, highintensity events – the intensity of extreme climate and weather events and exposure to them tend to be more pervasive in explaining disaster loss than vulnerability in explaining the level of impact.